US nonfarm payroll to add 550K jobs in November

The US jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The expectations are for:

  • Non Farm Payroll to add 550K jobs. That comes after a rise of 531K in October. That gain was above the 425K estimate. Job gains in September came in at 312K and August it was at 483K
  • ADP nonfarm employment change came in at 534K on Wednesday. Last month ADP showed a gain of 570K which was relatively close to the 531K reported by the BLS.
  • Goods producing jobs last month rose by 108,000.
  • Service producing jobs increased by 496,000
  • Government jobs fell by -73,000
  • The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.5% from 4.6% last month. The unemployment rate pre-pandemic was around 3.5% and 4.4% in March 2020 before spiking higher to 14.7% in April
  • average hourly earnings are expected to come in at 0.4% versus 0.4% last month. Year on year earnings are expected to rise by 5.0% versus 4.9% last month
  • initial jobs claims during the survey week came in at 268K which was lower than the 290K last month.
  • Manufacturing payrolls came in at 60K last month. The ADP report showed a gain of 50K this month
  • average workweek is expected to remain steady at 34.7
  • The U6 underemployment rate is expected at 8.4% versus 8.3% last month

The details of the ADP report showed:

Goods Producing jobs:

  • Construction +52K
  • Manufacturing+50K
  • Natural resources and mining +7K

Service producing jobs showed

  • Leisure and hospitality +136K
  • Trade and transportation +78K
  • Education/health services +55K
  • Information +10K
  • Financial activities +13K
  • Professional business services +110K
  • Other services +22K

From last months BLS jobs report:

Goods producing jobs:

  • construction +44K
  • Manufacturing, +60K
  • Mining, +4K

Service producing jobs:

  • leisure and hospitality, +164K
  • trade transportation +54K
  • education and health services, +64K
  • information, +10K
  • financial activities, +21K
  • professional business services, +100K
  • other services plus 33K