The ISM services PMI index came in less than expected 62.0 versus 66.9, but the employment component did rise ahead of the jobs report tomorrow nonfarm payroll is expected to rise by 426K. Recall the ADP below the expectations are the water yesterday with a job gain estimate of about 800K. Initial jobs claims was also near historical levels just above the 200 K.

Fed's Daly echoed the sentiment by saying that the labor market looks very strong, and also thinks inflation is too high for her liking. Feds Bullard is looking for a rate hike as early as March. He sees three hikes in 2022 and is not opposed to letting the balance sheet wind down.


IN the forex market, the JPY is ending the day as the strongest of the majors followed closely by the USD. The AUD and the NZD are the weakest of the majors.

The EURUSD had another down up and back down day. The pair bottomed in the early European session at 1.1283. Moved up and through the 100 and 200 hour moving averages near 1.1317 on its way to a high of 1.1331. The subsequent fall that the price back down toward the low for the day (bottoming at 1.1285 this time). In the new trading day move below 1.1271 would open the door for further downside momentum toward 1.1260 which is ahead of another swing low area between 1.1226 and 1.1233. If the price does rally back higher, getting above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages near 1.1311 and 1.1317, would be required to tilt the bias more in the bullish direction.

The GBPUSD spent all but a few pips between the 100 day moving average 1.3553, and the 100 hour moving average at 1.3517. The current price is trading at 1.3534 between those two risk and bias defining extremes. Get above the 100 day moving average above, or move below the 100 hour moving average below should open up the door for further momentum in the direction of the break.

The USDJPY move lower in the Asian session but found support near its rising 100 hour moving average on two separate occasions. The 100 hour moving average comes in at 115.71 currently. A move below that level would increase the bearish bias technically in the new trading day. Until then, the buyers remain more in control. The high on Tuesday reached 116.345. The high late yesterday and early today reached 116.18. Get above each those levels would increase the bullish bias.

The USDCHF cracked above its 100 day moving average and afternoon trading after staying below the level since December 23. That moving average comes in at 0.92107. The current price is trading at 0.9217. Stay above would give the buyers more in control.

The AUDUSD and the NZDUSD move lower from the start of trading today and stayed near the lows for the day into the close. For the AUDUSD, the price fell below swing lows from Monday and Tuesday near 0.7182, and stayed below that area in the US trading session. The high price reached 0.7180 in the US session and is trading at 0.7162, above the low for the day at 0.7145.

For the NZDUSD, the pair stalled near a swing low area near 0.6734 and 0.6740. The current price is at 0.6747. A move below that swing area is needed to increase the bearish bias. Conversely a move above 0.6764, could give sellers cause for pause, and encourage more corrective buying to the upside.

In other markets as the day comes to a close:

  • Spot gold is down $20.35 or -1.13% and has moved back below the $1800 level at $1788.75
  • Spot silver is down $0.63 or -2.77% at $22.16
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading at $79.51 that's up $1.66 from the settle price yesterday. The high price did extend back above the $80 level today before backing off into the close
  • The price of bitcoin remains near the low levels going back to December at $43,200.

In the US stock market, the major indices could not hold onto gains and close lower. The NASDAQ index is down six the last seven trading days and is on a three day losing streak. The S&P is also down the last three trading days. The Dow industrial average is on a two day losing streak. The NASDAQ is on pace for its worst weekly performance since February 2021

The final numbers are showing:

  • Dow industrial average -170.64 points or -0.47% at 36236.48
  • S&P index fell -4.55 points or -0.10% at 4696.04
  • NASDAQ index fell -19.3 points or -0.13% at 1508.87. The NASDAQ is closing down nearly 7% from its all-time high
  • Russell 2000 rose 12.37 points or 0.56% to 2206.37.

In the US debt market, the yields are off their high levels. The 10 year yield reach 1.753% before rotating back down toward 1.726% near the close. The 30 year yield reached 2.138% it is trading at 2.083% near the close.

US yields