- S&P Global March flash US services PMI 53.8 vs 50.5 expected
- Canada retail sales for January 1.4% versus 0.7% estimate
- US February durable goods orders -1.0% vs +0.6% expected
- Fed's Bullard: Sees 80% chance financial stress abates
- Fed's Bullard: Inflation remains too high, macro data 'stronger than expected'
- Fed Barkin: The case for raising rates this week was pretty clear
- Fed's Bostic: Fed rate rise was not an easy decision
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count +4
- Atlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow tracker 3.2% vs 3.2% prior
- BOE's Mann: I voted for 25 bps partly because inflation expectations began to moderate
- Yellen convenes private meeting of financial stabilty oversight council
- ECB's Lagarde told EU leaders ECB fully equipped to provide liquidity to financial system
Markets:
- Gold down $14 to $1979
- US 10-year yield down 2.8 bps to 3.37%
- WTI crude oil down 64 cents to $69.32
- S&P 500 up 22 points to 3971. On the week up 1.4%
- JPY leads, NZD lags
The mood was poor at the start of North American trade as banking worries -- particularly Deutsche Bank -- haunted the market. US regional stocks were also under pressure and bonds had a strong bid. That had led to US dollar and yen buying as safe havens as US 2-year yields hit now post-SVB lows.
The mood changed as Fed speakers and data rolled out. The PMIs in particular were a reminder that the bulk of US economic data has surprised to the upside this year and there are no concrete signs of a slowdown; if anything it's the opposite.
That led to some selling in bonds and the dollar began to slowly pare gains ex-JPY. Equities turned more decisively later in the day as they followed regional bank shares once again. News that Yellen was meeting with regulators was well-received but might have also stoked expectations of weekend action. That could lead to disappointment on Monday if nothing unfolds.
Overall, it was a volatile week and there won't be too many people disappointed to see the weekend arrive. The machinations of Fed week and non-stop banking news leave the market needing an opportunity to digest.
The weekly charts show some nice progress for the yen but it stalled today and began to reverse. That's where the focus is going to remain.
