- US April PPI 11.0% y/y versus 10.7% expected
- US initial jobless claims 203K vs. 195K estimate
- Fed's Daly: No reason to alter course for 50 bps at next two meetings
- US treasury auctions off $22 billion of 30 year bonds at high yield of 2.997%
- BOC Gravelle: Rates are too low. May have to lift rates above neutral
Markets:
- Gold down $29 to $1822
- WTI crude oil up $1.01 to $106.72
- US 10-year yields down 5.6 bps to 2.85%
- S&P 500 down 5 points to 3930
- JPY leads, EUR lags
The S&P 500 came within a hair of a 20% high-to-low decline but near that area it found a bid to close near flat. The Russell 2000 gained 1.2% in a sign that a bid for value is emerging as Treasury yields retrace.
Sentiment regarding European growth is rapidly deteriorating and that's evident in the plunge in the euro despite hawkish talk from the ECB. The low was 1.0355 shortly after the European closed and it bounced only 20 pips despite the better risk picture.
The reversal in USD/JPY might be the most-tradeable shift in the market. With yields retracing, we may be pricing in more of a growth slowdown than just high rates. In addition, there's growing speculation that Japan won't be spared from inflation and that could soon prompt a shift in tactics from the BOJ.
Commodity currencies were beatn up again but generally tracked equities. The loonie outperformed its commodity cousins as oil and gas help up again (remarkably).
Bitcoin showed some life despite the Luna implosion and brief break of the buck for tether. $28,700 isn't exactly gangbusters for bitcoin but it's well-above the $25,400 low and the break below the longer-term lows.
