- US weekly initial jobless claims 211K vs 195K expected
- Bank of Canada's Rogers: Need to see more evidence to fully assess if rates high enough
- BOC's Rogers: Falling Canadian dollar would put upwards pressure on inflation
- Preview: February non-farm payrolls by the numbers
- US treasury auctions off $18 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 3.877%
- Household net worth increased by $2.9 trillion in 4Q
- US mortgage rates continue to tick up, rising to 6.73% from 6.65% prior
- Fed's Barr: Crypto still potentially transformative but needs appropriate guardrails
Markets:
- Gold up $17 to $1830
- US 10-year yields down 7 bps to 3.90%
- US 2-year yields down 19 bps to 4.87%
- WTI crude oil down $1.13 to $75.52
- S&P 500 down 73 points to 3918
- JPY leads, CAD lags
Traders were expecting a routine pre-NFP day with little on the economic calendar. The initial jobless claims report ticked to the highest since Christmas and that led to some bids in risk assets initially but a short time later the wheels came off the market.
The problems started in fixed income and were also reflected in a slump in USD/JPY. The front-end of the curve rallied and that initially looked like FOMO for 5% rates but then some kind of panic hit. Perhaps it's pre-NFP angst and that would make plenty of sense but it's not the only big data point the market's ever seen.
So what else is there? Some were eyeing a deep selloff in US financials after Silicon Bank raised capital via an equity sale. It's a stretch but there are fears that the tech bust could bleed into financial losses.
Aside from that, you'll have a tough time pinning down what happened.
To be fair, the FX market took it in stride with some bids in low yielders but nothing dramatic otherwise. USD/CAD pushed to a new cycle high as oil prices slipped, on Rogers' comments and BOC follow-through.
The BOJ is up next and then it's onto the jobs report.
