- ISM US September services PMI 56.7 vs 56.0 expected
- US ADP September employment +208K vs +200K expected
- OPEC+ agrees to production cut of 2 million barrels per day
- OPEC shifts to meeting every two months. Will next meet in December
- US weekly EIA crude oil inventories -1356K vs +2052K expected
- Fed's Daly: I see more rate increases as necessary
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow rises to 2.7% from 2.3%
- Goldman Sachs boosts Q4 oil price forecast to $110 after OPEC decision
- White House says OPEC is 'aligning with Russia' and it's absolutely true
- Bank of England again rejects all offers at the daily gilt operation
- S&P Global US services PMI final 49.3 vs 49.2 prelim
- US international trade balance for August $-67.4 billion vs. $-67.7 billion estimate
- Canada August trade balance +1.52B vs +3.45B expected
- SNB's Maechler: We are seeing more signs of second-round inflation effects
Markets:
- Gold down $9 to $1717
- WTI crude oil up $1.30 to $87.82
- US 10-year yields up 14 bps to 3.75%
- S&P 500 down 8 points to 3783
- NZD leads, GBP lags
It looked like it would be a straight sell-everything-and-buy-USD day for much of it. That was after a surprisingly strong ISM services report put agressive Fed action back on the table the odds of 75 bps on Nov 2 crept back up after the report, equities sold off and the dollar rose.
But after Europe went home the mood began to shift and without any fundamental news. It was a solid showing for the dip buyers despite yields that stayed high.
Cable was particularly volatile as it fell more than 250 pips at the lows to 1.1228 before bouncing by a full cent.
With the big turn in FX, the Australian and New Zealand dollars managed to finish in positive territory. Some of that was a result of RBNZ hawkishness today but it was a notable reversal all the same and leaves doji stars on the daily charts.
Elsewhere, the loonie was bounced from the lows but still finished strongly lower despite the OPEC decision. There was an element of 'sell the fact' on the report but tight inventory numbers out of the US and constructive views on OPEC cohesion lent a bid late.
USD/JPY continues to flirt with the 145.00 level and reached 144.87 today but the market remains relucatant to test the BOJ.
