- ISM manufacturing and US construction spending kick off Fed week
- OPEC April output rose 40K bpd in April to 28.58m bpd - survey Draghi says will fund a new stimulus with windfall tax on energy companies
- Germany's Scholz: Putin won't get sanctions lifted without Ukraine peace agreement
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 2Q growth falls to 1.6% from 1.9%
- China continues to struggle with covid cases
- US construction spending for March 0.1% versus 0.7% estimate
- ISM April US manufacturing 55.4 vs 57.6 expected
- S&P Global final US April manufacturing PMI 59.2 vs 59.7 prelim
- S&P Global Canada April manufacturing 56.2 vs 58.9 prior
Markets:
- Gold down $35 to $1861
- WTI crude oil up $10.5 to $105.73
- US 10-year yields up 10 bps to 2.98%
- S&P 500 up 23 points to 4155
- USD leads, CHF and GBP lag
It was a lively day of trading but ended up posing as many questions as answers. A flash crash in European equities -- rumored to be a Citi trading error -- led to a tense atmosphere early but stock futures were only modestly lower before the open. They opened strongly however before going back and forth in big swings. The lows came at the start of the final hour of US trading but a big rally followed into the close.
The FX market didn't exactly follow the tick-for-tick moves, preferring instead to buy the dollar on the climb in yields. US 10s hit 3% for the first time since 2018 before settling just below. The moves didn't kick off until New York trading and weren't tracked by Europe, widening spreads further.
Even with that, USD/JPY didn't make much of a move.
Cable was a bigger mover as it sank again, erasing most of Friday's deceased feline-style bounce. Cable has tracked equities lately but didn't get any life out of the late bounce.
Another remarkable ongoing theme in markets is the resilience in oil. It sank in Europe and early US trading on a report that the EU hasn't been able to find a way to come to a consensus on banning Russian oil by year end. Yet despite that and the early poor risk sentiment, it came all the way back and finished higher. That's been a theme for the past two weeks and every time it looks ready to crack it comes back stronger. CAD did struggle on the weakness and made a bit of a comeback on the bounce but not enough to finish higher on the day.
The euro touched below 1.05 as talk of a European recession begins to grow louder. The ECB certainly has its work cut out for it.
