Markets:

  • Gold up $14 to $1646
  • US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.05%
  • WTI crude oil up $1.73 to $88.27
  • NZD leads, CAD lags

The mode as the US arrived was strong risk appetite as the market tried to parse through a report and denial on Chinese reopening. The dollar was softer, yields were down and stock futures significantly higher.

It reversed on the JOLTS report as the market fears that a Fed pivot won't come tomorrow because of a too-hot jobs market. USD/JPY climbed 120 pips from the lows and the euro fell nearly a full cent.

It was consistent across the market as equities gave back gains (and more) while 10-year yields went from 3.92% to 4.05%.

Of course, this is all in the shadow of the FOMC decision and handicapping a pivot is a tough job. Timiraos was out with his latest as well and some found a hawkish bent in the language, though you had to squint to see any kind of a signal.

fx news wrap Nov 1