- JOLTS job openings for September 10.717M vs 10.000M estimate
- US October ISM manufacturing 50.2 vs 50.0 expected
- Saudi Arabia on high alert on warning of imminent Iranian attack
- US September construction spending +0.2% vs -0.5% expected
- Brazil's Bolsonaro says he always followed constitution but doesn't explicitly concede
- ECB Nagel: There is still a long way to go on rate hikes
- The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 4Q growth falls to 2.6% from 3.1% last
- White House talks about Fed policy pivot and the market reacts
- Final US manufacturing PMI from S&P Global 50.4 vs 49.9 flash
- Canada October S&P Global manufacturing PMI 48.8 vs 49.8 prior
Markets:
- Gold up $14 to $1646
- US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.05%
- WTI crude oil up $1.73 to $88.27
- NZD leads, CAD lags
The mode as the US arrived was strong risk appetite as the market tried to parse through a report and denial on Chinese reopening. The dollar was softer, yields were down and stock futures significantly higher.
It reversed on the JOLTS report as the market fears that a Fed pivot won't come tomorrow because of a too-hot jobs market. USD/JPY climbed 120 pips from the lows and the euro fell nearly a full cent.
It was consistent across the market as equities gave back gains (and more) while 10-year yields went from 3.92% to 4.05%.
Of course, this is all in the shadow of the FOMC decision and handicapping a pivot is a tough job. Timiraos was out with his latest as well and some found a hawkish bent in the language, though you had to squint to see any kind of a signal.