The lead-in to the Asia session:
ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Early optimism crumbles as yields jump and tech sinks
- Chatter of possible cruise missile strikes in Kyiv
- Senior BOJ official says monetary easing policy to be maintained
- China COVID-19: international flights will be diverted away from Shanghai city until May 1
- US Senator Rubio says Russia does not have the morale, manpower to take Kyiv at present
- China's President Xi Jinping invited to Saudi Arabia - word is he will go there in May
- China February data: retails sales beat, Industrial production beats, investment beats
- Oil continues its drop, Brent barely above $100
- PBOC leaves its MLF rate unchanged (a 5 to 10bp cut was the consensus expected)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.3760 (vs. estimate at 6.3649)
- China confirms a huge jump in COVID-19 cases
- Japan finance minister Suzuki says FX stability is very important
- RBA March meeting minutes - Says Russia's war on Ukraine a major new source of uncertainty
- Ukraine's President Zelensky says negotiations with Russia will continue on Tuesday
- CNBC reports that NATO leaders are discussing having an extraordinary meting next week
- A city near Beijing, China, has been locked down in response to rising COVID-19 cases
- New Zealand services PMI for February 46.5 (prior 45.9)
- Reports of a Russian drone over Poland
- Nomura see 3 reasons pushing EUR/USD lower in the next 3 months before bouncing back in H2
- Australian weekly consumer confidence 95.8 (prior 100.1)
- Goldman Sachs G10 FX rate forecasts (3 to 12 month horizons)
- US Treasury official - investors see high probability of a Russian sovereign bond default
- Binance has received licenses to be a crypto service provider in Dubai and Bahrain
- Russia has finalised its ban on grain and sugar exports
- NZD/USD view - watching 0.6750
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 15 March 2022
- Nasdaq sheds another 2%. Closes below 2022 low
It was a mixed session across major FX with strength for EUR and GBP while JPY, CHF, AUD and NZD were softer.
On the news front we had further lockdowns in China and then the daily case number rocketing higher from yesterday and once again at its highest since early in 2020 (at the beginning of the pandemic).
From Ukraine we had the news that:
- Ukraine negotiations with Russia will continue on Tuesday.
- And no halt to Russian hostilities.
- Reports that a Russian drone entered Poland's airspace
- As I post we’ve just had reports of ‘huge’ explosions in central Kyiv, possibly the result of an attack by cruise missiles.
- Earlier in the session Russian announced bans on grain and sugar exports (see bullets above for details).
On the central bank front we had March meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia. These have been superseded by Governor Lowe speaking last week. Check out the bullets above for the minutes summary but in brief:
- Russia’s war on Ukraine is a new source of uncertainty
- the Australian economy is resilient
- the RBA sees a central case to be patient
- wages growth will take some time to reach levels consistent with the target for CPI, but risks are to the upside (on wages)
The People’s Bank of China was expected (by a small majority only) to cut the rate on its medium term lending facility (MLF) today by 5 or 10bps. It did not, the rate remained unchanged at 2.85%. The notable event on the MLF was the amount, 200bn yuan. This is double the 100bn yuan that matured today and represent a significant injection of funds.
Oil markets were volatile. The spot CL contract dropped well under US$100. Its since off its session lows but is still under $100.
Regional stocks were volatile too. At one stage Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down circa 4%. Its retraced a little to be circa 2.25% down as I post.
Gold is back under US$1950.
