- Australian December jobs data is due Thursday 19 January 2022
- ANZ forecast RBNZ cash rate to peak at 3% (prior forecast 2%)
- US Commerce Secretary Raimondo and UK Trade Secretary Trevelyan to meet Wednesday
- ICYMI - PBOC to open the taps, more policy easing is coming
- Morgan Stanley on downside risks for GBP crosses
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.3624 (vs. estimate at 6.3606)
- Reuters poll shows Eurozone inflation set to rise even higher in 2022
- ICYMI - JP Morgan's Kolanovic is still buying the dip
- Analyst says a 50bp rate hike from the Federal Reserve in March is warranted
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for January 102.2 (prior 104.3)
- Oil futures higher again - pipeline shutdown (Iraq - Turkey)
- Oil - Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline explosion and fire
- Australia coronavirus - largest population state to reduce booster wait time to 3 months
- US administration says they have the tools to address rising oil prices
- UK media report Covid restrictions to be lifted on Wednesday
- New Zealand – Card Spending for December +0.4% m/m (expected -2.3%)
- OPEC says Omicron, rising rates will not subdue oil demand
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 19 January 2022
- US stocks close sharply lower led by the NASDAQ index as rates move higher
- AUDUSD chops at lower levels into the close
Oil prices added to their already strong gains during the Asian morning. The catalyst was an explosion and fire that shut down the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline. This pipeline normally carries over 100kb/d (I saw figures up 450kb/d) from northern Iraq into the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. The disruption will further add to already tight supply conditions.
Otherwise fresh news catalysts were pretty much absent, as were any data of note. Thursday (Asia time) will bring a potential easing from the People’s Bank of China with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting for the month.
There will also be Australian employment figures:
On Australian labour markets, we did get weekly payrolls data from Australia today which showed that in the year since December 19th 2020 payroll wages rose 9%. One of the factors the Reserve Bank of Australia is assessing is wage growth in Australia. They’ll take note of this. Westpac have provided a chart of job and wage growth – not the surge in 2021:
On the FX front the majors were range bound and mainly quiet. NZD/USD popped a few points on a revised forecast for a higher end point for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate (3% vs. 2%, see bullets above).
USD/JPY popped earlier in the session with US yields rising slightly again. That pop has been unwound.
