- JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic is "cautious on risk assets"
- Australian dollar extending its losses, USD more broadly higher
- BOJ may raise its yield ceiling again by mid-year says Governor contender Ito
- Friday is the last day for Federal Reserve officials to comment ahead of the FOMC meeting
- Top Chinese officials told Yellen they are optimistic can return to normal economic growth
- Toyota has placed limits on orders for Lexus cars due to semiconductor chip shortage
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7674 (vs. estimate at 6.7680)
- Deutsche Bank "more negative on the Swiss franc"
- Australian dollar lower following the jobs report
- Australian December unemployment rate 3.5% vs. expected at 3.4% and prior also 3.4%
- New Zealand politics - PM Ardern to resign on February 7
- Japan December Exports +11.5% y/y (expected +10.1%) Imports +20.6% (expected +22.4%)
- IMF's Gopinath says China's economy could see a very quick recovery starting from after Q1
- Goldman Sachs on Russian oil production, outlines both downside & upside risk to oil price
- Reuters Japan Corporate Survey finds only 53% of firms committed to wage hikes this year
- More from Fed's Logan on recession prospects - its possible its different this time
- Fed's Logan says she supports slowing pace of rate hikes at this next upcoming meeting
- More from Fed's Harker - says Fed policy need not be set at very restrictive levels
- New Zealand food price index for December +1.1% m/m (prior 0.0%)
- Oil - private survey of inventory shows a huge build vs. the draw expected
- Weaker data hurts the US stock indices
- More from Fed's Harker - says Fed need to get funds rate above 5%
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 19 January 2023
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Weak US retail sales stoke hard landing fears
It was a mixed day across major FX. EUR/USD, for example, extended its Wednesday losses just a touch to lows circa 1.0783 before managing to bounce back above 1.1800.
As mentioned in the headline the Australian dollar was on the soft side. Australia’s December labour market report showed unemployment above expected and a net loss of jobs in the month against a rise expected. Some of the disappointment was reduced by the job losses being in part-time while full-time job numbers rose. Nevertheless, AUD/USD extended its Wednesday fall to lows under 0.6900. Its crawled back above the figure as I post.
NZD/USD traded a little lower with AUD/USD. New Zealand’s Prime Minister announced she’d be resigning on February 7 and not contesting the upcoming election in October this year. PM Jacinda Ardern has been in the job for just over 5 years and said as her reason:
- “I know what this job takes and I know I no longer have enough in the tank to do it justice.”
USD/JPY continued its swings, albeit in a much smaller range than Wednesday’s. As I update its on its lows for the session circa 128.20. Data from Japan today showed another in its long string of monthly trade deficits. Exporters performed solidly. The stronger yen and falling energy prices helped lower the import bill.
From the Federal Reserve we heard more from Harker. Dallas branch President Logan also spoke, stating her support for a +25bp Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike at the upcoming January 31/February 1 meeting.
Oil fell while gold steadied a touch better bid.