- More on BNZ lowering their Reserve Bank of New Zealand terminal rate forecast
- ICYMI - Spain to raise minimum wage by 8%
- DoubleLine bond guru Jeff Gundlach says the Fed will push back against pivot narrative
- UBS outline 2 big reasons that'll see downward pressure on the USD continue to mount
- US official acknowledges Japan, Netherlands deal to curb chipmaking exports to China
- China PMI data: Caixin Manufacturing PMI January 49.2 (previous 49.0)
- New Zealand new PM has announced an extension of petrol (gasoline) price relief to June 30
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7492 (vs. estimate at 6.7499)
- Chatter persists that the PBOC may move on yuan valuation
- Japan (final) Jibun January PMI: Manufacturing 48.9 (prior 48.9)
- South Korean January exports plunged 16% y/y
- RBA's Kohler says the Bank believes inflation peaked in Q4 of 2022
- New Zealand Finance Minister Grant Robertson says inflation has not fallen significantly
- Goldman Sachs on "the key question" for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting
- ANZ New Zealand see 'strong argument' for an RBNZ cash rate hike of 50bp in February
- BNZ now expects the RBNZ cash rate to peak at 5% (vs. 5.5% prior forecast)
- UK media report that a Brexit deal over Northern Ireland has been agreed to
- Australian January (final) Manufacturing PMI 50.0 (prior 50.2)
- NZD/USD drops a few points after the New Zealand jobs market report
- New Zealand jobs report for Q4 2022: Unemployment rate 3.4% (expected 3.3%)
- Oil - private survey of inventory shows much larger build than was expected
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 1 February 2023
- No fear of the Fed. US stocks surge late
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Slower wage data breathes life into risk trades
Major forex rates traded in limited ranges during the session here with traders awaiting the Federal Reserve statement and Powell’s following news conference. ICYMI, previews posted already:
- FOMC to hike 25 bps on Wed and Powell to stick to 5.1% peak - Barclays
BoA on the FOMC, +25bp & guidance of more to come. BoA forecast EUR/USD lower.
Goldman Sachs Fed view: balance of risks toward further tightening, not cuts later in 2023
Fed to hike 25bps; the bar is high to flip the status quo for USD - TD
WSJ's Timiraos says Federal Reserve officials uneasy that inflation could re accelerate
News flow of any relevance was basically absent.
We did get some data flow though. The New Zealand labour market report for Q4 2022 (official NZ jobs data is published once a quarter) showed a slight slackening in labour market tightness. ANZ reaffirmed its call for a 50bp rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at the February 22 policy meeting. BNZ lowered its forecast to 50bp from its previously expected 75bp hike.
From
the RBA’s Marion Kohler, head of the Bank’s Economic Analysis
Department, we had confirmation that the Bank expects inflation has
peaked with the Q4 CPI data. ICYMI that data last week:
And, the RBA features the data on the front page of its website:
Note that the RBA next meet on February 7. A 25bp rate hike is widely expected given that huge gap between the cash rate and the CPI. Its unlikely to be the last cash rate hike.
From China we had the privately surveyed manufacturing PMI for January. This follows yesterday’s official PMIs:
The Caixin January Manufacturing PMI didn’t make it into expansion but did nudge a little higher from December.
South Korea's trade deficit hit a record in January. Exports fell for a fourth straight month. Weak global demand for semiconductors and petrochemicals were cited.
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 +0.17%
China’s Shanghai Composite +0.1%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +0.37%
South Korea’s KOSPI +0.82%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 +0.43%
