- US inflation (PCE) data due Friday - here are the critical ranges to watch
- BOJ hiking (slowly), RBA cutting (slowly), Fed, BoC, RBNZ all cutting
- Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman is speaking again on Friday
- European Central Bank speakers on Friday include Lane and Cipollone
- China YTD industrial profits +0.5% y/y (prior +3.6%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0101 (vs. estimate at 7.0093)
- Australian Treasurer Chalmers sees a positive impact from past China stimulus
- PBOC cuts 7 day reverse repo rate to 1.5% (prior 1.7%)
- People's Bank of China cuts RRR by 50bp
- A tornado warning has been issued for parts of Florida and Georgia until 6 AM EDT
- USD/JPY sitting around its recent high circa 145.05 after the Tokyo inflation data
- Tokyo area September inflation data: Headline 2.2% y/y (expected 2.2%)
- Base case forecast for RBA to cut on November 5 - a close call, very much data dependent
- More from Fed's Cook: AI could be inflationary in short term, disinflationary in long tern
- US weather - Helene is now an "extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane"
- Deutsche Bank predicts consecutive 25bp rate cuts by ECB starting in December
- New Zealand consumer confidence improved to 95.1 in September (prior 92.2)
- Fed's Cook says she 'wholeheartedly' supported 50bp rate cut
- Goldman Sachs raises GBP forecasts, predicts stronger sterling in 2024
- The Swiss National Bank made its third rate cut, heading towards the end of cutting cycle?
- ICYMI - More China stimulus, this time its likely to have immediate impact
- Should we expect oil to return to $100 per barrel?
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar fades as China trades jump
- ICYMI - Global central banks are unprepared to handle an AI-driven banking crisis
- Another record high for the S&P
- Trade ideas thread - Friday, 27 September, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
China promised rate cuts on Tuesday, and today they were implemented:
- the People’s Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5 percentage points for financial institutions
- the 7-day reverse repo rate was cut to 1.5%, from 1.7%
- the 14-day reverse repo rate was cut to 1.65%, from 1.85. Earlier in the week this had been cut from 1.95% to 1.85%
Chinese stocks continued to surge but there was not the same 'risk on' response in major FX, with the USD higher against AUD, EUR, GBP, NZD and CAD (and CHF … I’ll come back to JPY in a bit).
Apart from the PBoC cuts we had data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showing industrial profits plunged by 17.8% in August from a year ago. This was shrugged off, China stimulus is the driver for now.
Earlier in the session were inflation data from Japan, Tokyo area CPI. Headline and core rates were steady at or above the BoJ target rate of 2%, but the ‘core-core’ (excluding food and energy) was steady well below it (at 1.6%). During September the Japanese government reintroduced subsidies for electricity and gas, helping to restrain prices.
USD/JPY rose after the CPI data to a three-week high above 145.55, briefly. Its subsequently traded back towards 145.00 to be still a touch higher on the session.
Still to come today, at 8.30 am US Eastern time, are PCE (inflation) data. This could have an impact on the 25 vs 50 debate about what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will do next.
USD/JPY
