- Chinese authorities promise to release data on youth employment - no time frame given
- Barr and Barkin are Federal Reserve officials speaking on Wednesday
- Bank of England MPC member Jonathan Haskel speaking on Wednesday
- China Oct. Industrial Production +4.6% y/y (exp 4.4%) & Retail sales +7.6% y/y (exp 7.0%)
- Citi's bold forecast: Brent crude oil prices to $73 / bbl in Q2 2024
- Oil Market Trends: Vitol research reveals pre-pandemic intensity return
- People's Bank of China MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%): injects 1450bn yuan
- The Bank of Japan has trimmed the amount of its regular bond buying
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1752 (vs. estimate at 7.2564)
- USD/JPY has bounced higher despite a massive gain in Japanese inflation
- Japanese Economy Minister warns of global slowdown impact on Q3 GDP
- Australian Q3 Wage Price Index +1.3% q/q (vs. expected +1.3%)
- US President Biden and Chinese President Xi will meet on Wednesday 15 November at 18.45GMT
- Japan preliminary Q3 GDP -0.5% q/q (expected -0.1%)
- China's trade blocks to be lifted by Christmas, says Australian Trade Minister
- China FX strategy: JPM bullish growth, but foreign inflows remain unrestored
- Stopgap funding bill to avert a US government shutdown wins the House vote
- JP Morgan CEO suggests further action on rates may be needed, pause may not last
- Huge bet against semiconductor stocks by 'Big Short' Michael Burry
- New Zealand data: Card retail sales -0.7% m/m in October (prior -0.8%)
- Oil - private survey of inventory shows headline crude build, not as much as was expected
- Janet Yellen's unexpected fast food order goes viral
- Russell 2000 soars 5.44% as major US stock indices surge on CPI data
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Huge moves follow US inflation report
- JP Morgan CEO Dimon says people are overreacting to short-term numbers on inflation
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 15 November 2023
The US House of Representatives passed a stopgap funding bill to avert a US government shutdown that’ll now proceed to the Senate, where it is also likely to pass. The Bill contains no spending cuts and sailed easily through the chamber winning 336 to 95:
- 209 Democrats voted for the bill
- 27 Republicans voted for it
Otherwise news flow was light during the session but there were data releases from Japan, Australia and China to consider. The People’s Bank of China weighed in also.
Japan’s preliminary Q3 GDP data showed a contraction, the first in three quarters:
- the economy shrank an annualised real 2.1% y/y and 0.5% in Q3
- inventory subtracted 0.3%, domestic capital expenditure contracted 0.6%, private consumption was flat
- Of note from the data was a massive surge for the Deflator, an inflation indicator, to 5.1% y/y.
Australian Q3 wages data followed, coming in line with market expectations but nevertheless at a 26 year high. The strong growth is not too far away from what the Reserve Bank of Australia was expecting, and as they forecast more subdued growth ahead as the economy weakens the data is not expected to put a scare into the RBA ahead of the December policy meeting (widely expected to be an on hold decision at this stage).
China’s central bank boosted liquidity injections via its Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) today. The rate was unchanged at 2.5%. An unchanged rate was the unanimous expectation. The Bank made 1450 billion yuan worth of fresh MLF loans, more than offsetting the 850bn maturing. The net 600 billion yuan fresh fund injection into the banking system is the largest since December 2016. This will further help support stimulus spending.
China’s economic activity data showed pick-ups for consumer spending (retail sales) and industrial output while investment growth slowed in the face of the severe and ongoing property debt crisis.
USD/JPY popped a little higher on the session, partially retracing its huge drop post-US CPI on Tuesday.
Other FX was a little more range bound.
USD/CNH fell away after the Chinese data.