- The RBA next meet on July 5. Early preview says another 50bp interest rate rise coming.
- IMF says still some way off inflation in Japan being high enough for policy normalisation
- China's trade data for May is due imminently - the time of release is flexible though
- Preview of the ECB monetary policy meeting - "why not end QE and raise rates in June?"
- China financial media says Chinese property market has yet to bottom out
- IMF says the weak yen helps the BOJ inflation target
- British Chambers of Commerce says 10% inflation will be hit in Q4 2022
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.6811 (vs. estimate at 6.6764)
- China media: "Shanghai Heightens Covid Restrictions After a Spike in Cases Sparks Concern"
- Goldman Sachs still positive on the yen - see 2 scenarios for it to rise
- Another district in Shanghai to be locked down - for mass COVID testing
- Higher & faster interest rate rises are coming from the Reserve Bank of Australia
- Deutsche Bank says no yen intervention in the near-term.
- Preview of the ECB monetary policy meeting - statement then Lagarde speaking 09 June 2022
- UK data - RICS house price balance for May is 73 (vs. prior 80)
- US & Japan to hold economic 2+2 talks (if you are asking what this is, here you go)
- ICYMI - UAE Energy Min says just wait until China oil demand is back! (I'm paraphrasing)
- Preview of the ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday, 9 June 2022 - waiting for July
- The RBNZ has outlined its plan to sell off its "QE" government bond holdings
- Heads up for China lending data due soon* (see post) - rebound is expected
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: JPY continues its decline as other central banks tighten
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 9 June 2022
- What to watch for signs of imminent USD/JPY intervention. 135 is a key level.
- US major indices all close lower. S&P index closes down around -1%
AUD, NZD, GBP, and CAD all dribbled a little lower against the US dollar. EUR/USD, though, is barely changed net for the session. We head into the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting today with the consensus expecting no change to main policy planks but eyes out for a hardening in guidance of tightening to come. The statement is due at 1145 GMT with ECB President Lagarde’s press conference to follow at 1230 GMT.
While the consensus is not expecting action today it is expected at the July meeting. This reminds me of heading into the RBA May meeting where it was consensus for no change and for a hike in June. We ended up getting the lift-off hike from the RBA in May. Not moving in May seemed churlish heading into that meeting given the mounting storm clouds. Just as it does for the ECB today. Stay tuned folks!
News flow was light but what little we got was uninspiring out of Shanghai on COVID. One district has been shunted back into lock down with mass testing to be carried out beginning Saturday.
Data flow, well we are still awaiting the day’s data of interest, the trade info for May from China. Lockdown restrictions were incrementally dialled back somewhat during that month so trade performance is expected to have improved. Stay tuned for that data too!
USD/JPY meanwhile ran into a bit of a wall circa 134.50 after continued gains during the US session. There were no remarks from Japanese officials today attempting to counter the weakening yen.
EUR/USD was the dog that didn't bark:
