- Deutsche Bank on the 100bp US yield curve inversion: in all such occurrences ... recession
- South Korea central bank says impact of monetary policy on economy will be greater in 2023
- Top 3 software/application industry stocks to consider
- Australia to lift COVID testing requirements for visitors from China starting March 11
- Head of Singapore's central bank says the idea that tightening will soon end is optimistic
- Bank of England Breeden speaks Thursday, 9 March 2023 on macro-prudential/monetary policy
- Japan's trade minister says nothing has been decided on chip export restrictions to China
- China February inflation data: CPI 1.0% y/y (expected 1.9%) & PPI -1.4% y/y (exp. -1.3%)
- Janice Eberly is the front-runner for the Fed Vice Chair job vacated by Lael Brainard
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.9666 (vs. estimate at 6.9668)
- Major Russian air attack in Ukraine underway
- The huge tax hikes proposal from the US admin sent US equity indexes on that rollercoaster
- US President Biden budget proposes raising corporate tax to 28% (from 21%)
- USD/JPY down to 137.00 after revised Q4 GDP came in below the preliminary reading
- PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9668 – Reuters estimate
- Japan data: Q4 GDP (revised) 0.0% q/q (preliminary was +0.2%)
- Its unclear if JP Morgan has cut ties with crypto exchange Gemini
- Crypto-friendly bank Silvergate is shutting down operations, liquidating bank
- US nonfarm payroll preview - Morgan Stanley is below consensus on the headline number
- Volume profile trading strategy: Bulls safeguarding S&P 500 PoC at apx. 3970
- Taiwan suspects Chinese ships cut islands’ internet cables
- Goldman Sachs: "case for idiosyncratic Sterling weakness has diminished this year" ... but
- New Zealand retail data for February, sales unchanged m/m from January
- Netherlands to block export of advanced chips printers to China
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: BOC holds, Powell pushes back against 50 bps
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 9 March 2023
Revised Japanese Q4 GDP was published during the session. The preliminary reading on this data a few weeks ago was disappointing at +0.2% q/q vs. the +0.5% expected. Today’s revision deepened that disappointment, coming in at flat, 0% q/q. In the GDP is the ‘deflator’, a measure of inflation. It rose from 1.1% y/y in the preliminary data to 1.2% in the revision. This is well under the CPI data released monthly from Japan and also below the 2% Bank of Japan target. No economic growth in the quarter and an under target inflation rate does not argue for any near term urgency for the Bank of Japan to tighten policy.
USD/JPY fell a little on the session, in a small range.
Also on data we had February inflation figures from China. The CPI and PPI both came in under expectations. The CPI was at its slowest in a year.
News crossed of US President Biden’s budget proposals to be sent to Congress on Thursday. These included massive tax hikes. Biden’s submission is aimed at winning approval from his party. Such tax hikes have zero chance of being passed in Congress. When the news crossed US equity index futures dropped on Globex, but soon recovered. Only to dribble back lower and then flatten out.
On the geopolitical front Russia launched a massive missile attack into Ukraine.
Major FX traded in very limited ranges only. Regional equities are mixed.
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 +0.6%
China’s Shanghai Composite -0.3%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +0.3%
South Korea’s KOSPI +0.1%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 +0.1%
There was a little crypto news during the session (see bullets above for more on these):
- Its unclear if JP Morgan has cut ties with crypto exchange Gemini
- Crypto-friendly bank Silvergate is shutting down operations, liquidating bank
