- Deutsche Bank flags rising risks to December Fed rate cut, signals extended policy pause
- ECB vice president Luis de Guindos is speaking on Friday
- China official PMI data due this weekend - manufacturing and services expansion expected
- Tokyo inflation acceleration - recapping the yen supportive data published earlier
- The potential for a December Federal Reserve rate cut cited for gold price bounce
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1877 (vs. estimate at 7.2244)
- Japan will provide up to 100bn yen support for semiconductors and more
- USD losses continue - USD/JPY under 150.70
- Australian October 2024 Private Sector Credit +0.6% m/m (expected +0.5%)
- Reforms afoot at the Reserve Bank of Australia could complicate rate cut outlook
- Japan October Industrial Output +3.0% m/m (exp +3.9%) Retail sales +1.6% y/y (exp +2.2%)
- USD/JPY towards 151.10 - the drop began before the CPI data officially published
- Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%)
- More on this revised RBNZ forecast from ANZ now expect the RBNZ to cut by 50bp in February
- ANZ now expect the RBNZ to cut by 50bp in February (revised from 25pb cut)
- ANZ revise RBA forecast - now expect first cut in May (from February )
- Q1 2025 outlook: inflation pressures will rise, Fed likely to stop cutting rates earlier
- ICYMI - RBA Gov Bullock ruled out a rate cut
- Happy Thanksgiving to all our American readers
- New Zealand November consumer confidence jumps to 99.8 (prior 91.2)
- Trade ideas thread - Friday, 29 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
USD/JPY traded to under 150.00 following November inflation data from Tokyo. The data is in the post above, but the highlights:
- consumer prices excluding fresh food (referred to to as the core rate) for the Tokyo metropolitan area accelerated for the first time in 3 months
- energy prices increased due to the effects of government energy subsidies expiring (however there is a new support measure being rolled in from January)
- service prices, closely watched by the Bank of Japan, rose 0.9%, a little faster than October’s 0.8% increase
The higher readings encouraged the view that the Bank of Japan will hike at its December 18-19 meeting and the yen rocketed higher against the USD and crosses. USD/JPY fell, briefly, to lows under 150.00. Its back just above there as I update.
Other data from Japan were not quite so positive (but other data is taking a back seat to inflation data):
- industrial output and retail sales were both disappointing.
Apart from yen, other major FX traded in small ranges only, with a generally slightly weaker USD.
Note that over the weekend China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish November official PMIs (preview in points above).
