- China will conduct live-fire shooting exercises for 6 days from today
- Japan's PM to call a meeting to try to slow rising prices
- Recap of remarks from Fed's Daly - base case is +50bp in September, open to +75
- Conflicting views from IEA and OPEC will keep oil price volatility on the boil
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7413 (vs. estimate at 6.7432)
- RBNZ meet next week - preview - "should be NZD-supportive"
- FBI search of Trump home for classified documents relating to nuclear weapons
- More from Fed's Daly: repeats that 3.4% is about right for Fed Funds for the end of 2022
- Comments incoming from Fed's Daly - not only looking at 1 CPI report
- Analysts are unanimous that the RBNZ will hike cash rate by 50bp next week
- New Zealand food price inflation index rises 2.1% m/m in July (prior +1.2%)
- Central bank conference at Jackson Hole is August 25-27 - preview (what will Powell say?)
- New Zealand manufacturing PMI for July 52.7 (up from 49.7 in June)
- ICYMI - International Energy Agency raised its oil demand growth forecast for this year
- Morgan Stanley are bearish GBP but see another sharp leg lower as unlikely
- AUD/USD "likely to falter back to the 0.68-0.69 area"
- Trade ideas thread - Friday, 12 August 2022
- US stocks end the session mixed but well off highs for the day.
- EU have proposed a significant new concession to Iran to try to reach nuclear deal
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar rebounds after early dip as yields climb
USD/JPY was the mover amongst a lacklustre bunch here during the timezone. From lows under 133.00 USD/JPY has traded to highs towards 133.50. The only news item of note was confusing, that Japanese Prime Minister Kishida is planning to convene a meeting to address rising prices, wages. His monetary policy arm. The Bank of Japan, have spent over a decade trying to fuel just these, and everything we have heard publicly from Kishida and his government indicates support for the BOJ continuing to do just that. The meeting is planned for August 15, stay tuned.
The USD has generally ticked higher across major FX. EUR, GBP, AUD are all a touch lower on the session. NZD and CAD have held in. The moves have been tiny only.
Data flow was lower tier only.
From the Federal Reserve, Bloomberg TV had an interview with Mary Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Bank’s San Francisco branch. Daly spoke at length (see bullets above). At the next meeting her base case is for a +50bp rate hike from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), but she is open to +75 should the data indicate that’s necessary. She also reiterated she sees higher rates into year-end and then again into 2023. If you are looking for a label for the speech, hawkish would be the safe one.
Global politics took centre stage. The Washington Post reported that classified documents relating to nuclear weapons were among the items FBI agents sought in a search of former president Donald Trump’s Florida residence on Monday. WaPo cited unidentified sources. Its expected that US courts will soon order search warrants to be unsealed and an itemized list of confiscated material will be published, so we’ll soon find out.
