- Goldman Sachs on Australian LNG strikes: chance of a lengthy spike in gas prices are low
- Fitch expects the first Bank of Canada rate cut in April 2024
- Japan's new Economy Minister Shindo says its important to decisively end deflation
- The US data focus on Thursday, 14 September 2023 is August retail sales & PPI
- ICYMI - China says it hasn’t issued any ban on Apple’s iPhone
- Australia August Jobs +64.9K (vs. +25K expected) & Jobless rate 3.7% (vs. 3.7% exp)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1874 (vs. estimate at 7.2784)
- Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations for September: 4.6% (vs. prior 4.9%)
- Japanese buying of foreign bonds surged last week
- Goldman Sachs shifts into neutral - only asset class they like is cash
- Japan data - July Machinery Orders -1.1% m/m (expected -0.9%)
- Morgan Stanley expect no FOMC rate hike in September - US CPI report "a small victory"
- UK data - house price indicator from RICS hits a 14 year low
- BofA predicts limited EUR/USD reaction to upcoming ECB decision
- JP Morgan cut their forecasts for the UK economic growth
- BoA on oil: OPEC+ cuts, Asia demand - "Brent prices could spike past $100/bbl"
- Fitch still expecting US recession, in H1 2024. Also expecting 1 more Fed rate hike.
- China - Shenzhen Eases Home Purchase Curbs to Unleash Demand
- JP Morgan expects CPI to hit Fed 2% target by late 2024 - but don't expect more FOMC hikes
- US CPI response, with core surprising to the topside the November FOMC is very much live
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US inflation runs a touch on the hot side
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 14 September 2023
The moves for major FX rates were in small ranges only, with a half big figure lower for USD/JPY the stand out. The pair is still in the range it established on Monday in response to the remarks reported from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda over the weekend.
Data from Japan today showed disappointing core machinery orders. Note though that this is a volatile data set and if markets were bothered by it they wouldn't have sent yen higher on the session. Also note the post on Japanese buying of foreign bonds last week.
News flow was light.
The data focus was the August jobs report from Australia, a massive 64.9K jobs added on the month. The caveats on this were obvious though:
- the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% with participation hitting a record high at 69.9%
- more than 60K of those added jobs were part-time
- hours worked fell 0.5% on the month and the underemployment rate rose
The caveats took much of the shine of the strong headline result. AUD/USD had traded higher leading into the data release but as I update is slipped back to be barely changed on the session.
The People’s Bank of China leant on the USD/CNY reference rate again (not new news this, they’ve been doing so for weeks).
We await the European Central Bank policy meeting. You’ll recall yesterday we had the ‘leak’ of a rate hike coming due to inflation forecasts being raised. EUR/USD is up small on the session here.
