- More on the imminent limiting of US firms’ investment in China
- CBA: RBA interest rate hiking cycle is now expected to be more aggressive
- White House acknowledges Biden will talk oil with Saudis on his visit
- Australian May business confidence and conditions both fall
- Major Chinese cities see more land auctions being scrapped, broke developers stay away
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7482 (vs. estimate at 6.7439)
- Japan fin min says excess yen volatility, disorderly movement, could have adverse effect
- China state media on China-US talks in Luxembourg: necessary & beneficial communication
- China Securities Journal says once again that the PBOC has room to ease policy
- Oil - support from ongoing supply side issues
- "Many analysts expect China’s central bank to cut the rate on its MLF on Wednesday"
- We may be getting an interest rate change from the PBOC today (but probably not)
- US House votes to pass legislation to ease ocean shipping delays, sends to Biden to sign
- Rate futures now pricing in 96% probability of a 75bp FOMC rate hike on Wednesday
- New Zealand data - food price inflation +0.7% m/m (prior +0.1%)
- FOMC meet Wednesday - here is who is forecasting a 75bp rate hike
- Deutsche also in the 75bp FOMC rate hike camp
- Goldman Sachs now forecasting a 75bp interest rate rise from the FOMC this week
- Bank of England governor Bailey on crypto: "be prepared to lose all your money"
- US Congress moving forward with laws to restrict US investment in China firms
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap:2-10 yr spread gets close to inverted. Nasdaq test 200W MA
- The 2 reasons JP Morgan are forecasting a 75bp FOMC rate hike on Wednesday 15 June 2022
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 14 June 2022
- Standard Chartered predict a 10% chance of a 100-basis-point Fed rate hike
- Federal Reserve FOMC rate hike coming up Wednesday. How to not fight inflation.
- Ugly close: S&P 500 falls into a bear market in 4% decline
A report in the Wall Street Journal on Monday afternoon saying:
- "A string of troubling inflation reports in recent days is likely to lead Federal Reserve officials to consider surprising markets with a larger-than-expected 0.75-percentage-point interest rate increase at their meeting this week”
led to a cascade of analysts revising their forecasts for Wednesday’s FOMC decision from +50bp to a 75bp interest rate hike. So much so that 75bp has now become consensus.
Rate futures moved to now just under 100% for a 0.75% move.
Check out the Monday US timezone wrap for more, and for the rundown of the huge slump in equities (the wrap is linked above in the bullets).
The reopening of equity index futures trade on Globex saw US stock indices recover a little. Solid earnings for Oracle announced after the cash market close contributed to the bounce.
Asia Pacific shares dropped.
Crypto continued its cratering. BTC/USD dropped to around US$21K and is circa 21.5K as I post.
Across the major FX rates the session here was relatively subdued, market attention is elsewhere.
