- White House Deese comments on not expecting a dollar-weakening accord - more
- ICYMI - Goldman Sachs cut its 2023 oil price forecasts, citing a weakening demand outlook
- Australian 2021-2022 budget outcome, debt slightly less than the March forecast
- Asia take USD higher, nearly everything else down. Yellen, Deese shrugged off USD strength
- Australian retail sales data for August +0.6% m/m(expected +0.4%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1107 (vs. estimate at 7.1095)
- White House Economic Adviser Deese more progress is needed to reach an agreement with Iran
- Fed's Daly says want to bring inflation down, not unnecessarily tip economy into recession
- Yellen potentially leaving her role at US Treasury after mid-term elections
- BOJ July minutes. There is not a lot of conviction on inflation, wage rises in these.
- UK inflation indicator hits another record high
- Central banker gabfest in Europe/UK time - BOE, ECB speakers - Lagarde, Cuncliffe + more
- Moody's on the UK - "more aggressive monetary policy tightening, weighing on growth"
- TD says gold at risk of capitulation selling, cite "massively bloated & complacent" longs
- Morgan Stanley forecast the USD index, DXY, to 118 by year-end. Here's why.
- Moody's on the UK, says large, unfunded tax cuts a credit negative (who'dathunkit, eh?)
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen says that financial markets are operating normally.
- Oil - private inventory survey shows larger than expected headline build
- EU's Von Der Leyen - deliberate disruption to European energy infrastructure unacceptable
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 28 September 2022
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bond market breakdown continues as US data strengthens
- US stocks close mixed. A mixed day seems like a result.
It was a day of very light news and data flow.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meet next week, Tuesday 4 October (statement is due at 0330 GMT that day), and today’s retail sales data, up 0.6% m/m (ahead of the central estimate) and up 19% y/y (the second-largest increase y/y in the history of the data series) keeps a 50bp rate hike well and truly on the front burner. Australian consumer confidence has been very, very weak. This is not being reflected in strong retail sales data.
Market movements were dominated by rising US yields, the 10-year hitting over 4% (for the first time since back in 2010), and US dollar strength. Comments from US Treasury Secretary Yellen and White House Economic Adviser Deese shrugging off the strong US dollar (see bullets above) did not hinder the rising USD.
In central bank news we had Bank of Japan July meeting minutes (a bit stale these, see bullets above) and head of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Mary Daly saying the goal is to bring inflation down without tipping the economy into recession unnecessarily.
The US dollar rose pretty much across the majors board today. Offshore yuan fell, with USD/CNH above 7.2 and its highest (lowest for CNH) ever. USD/JPY was a bit of a laggard, with some reservations about taking it higher due to the niggling threat of intervention. EUR, AUD, GBP, NZD, CHF, CAD … all were lower and offering a safer trade.