- Goldman Sachs sees tactical upside risk for USD/JPY towards 140 in the near-term
- Reports of explosion at Google data center in Iowa
- China data - passenger vehicle sales up 20.1% y/y in July
- Australian business confidence 7 (prior 1)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7584 (vs. estimate at 6.7561)
- Recap on the FBI search on Trump - and the other criminal investigations underway
- Australian data - Monthly consumer confidence -3% m/m (prior also -3%)
- News on resumption of flights from Shanghai to Japan
- More on the FBI searching Trump's home - Secret Service facilitated access
- China's state financial media says lower rates, RRR are unlikely
- More on the FBI raid of former President Trump
- Australia - Weekly consumer confidence index -4.5% to its lowest since April 2020
- UK data: Like for like sales grew 1.6% y/y in July (vs. -1.3% in June)
- The RBA has kicked off a one-year research program into digital currency
- The FBI has raided former US President Trump's home - executes search warrant
- BoA expect the USD to remain strong for the balance of 2022
- NZ data - July electronic retail card sales -0.2% m/m (prior +0.1%)
- Goldman Sachs said the case for higher oil prices was still strong
- USD to stay firm well into 2023 (will push EUR/USD under parity again)
- ICYMI - The Fed will get comfort from falling inflation expectations
- After hours stock news - Groupon lays off 500+ Employees
- Morgan Stanley targeting towards 0.97 for EUR/USD
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 9 August 2022
- Mixed results for the major US indices
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Commodity currencies make headway
It was a subdued day across major FX in the timezone here. The excuse du jour seems to be waiting on the US CPI data coming up on Wednesday US time. Its such a good excuse it’ll probably get trotted out again tomorrow here!
USD/JPY dropped back again from just over 135 to lows circa 134.70. So, not too much a range. And it was a similar small range story against the dollar for EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD and especially CHF.
The drift down for USD/JPY has mainly dragged yen crosses off a little on the session.
The data of focus was on Australian business confidence and conditions, both of which came in showing improvement for the month (data from the National Australia Bank monthly survey of business). Drilling down into the numbers showed intense inflationary pressure. Wages, input costs and retail prices all rose, as did capacity utilisation (see bullets above for more). The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on September 6 and given this data a 50bp cash rate rise seems baked in already.
Political news was dominated by the FBI executing a search warrant at former US President Trump’s luxury Mar-A-Lago resort home. The warrant was approved by a US judge who found probable cause that crimes had been committed. The search related to 15 boxes of classified material Trump took from the White House on his departure. Although there could well be more to it than just this. With mid-term elections on November 8, the cauldron of hostile US politics is coming to the boil. It’ll get uglier in the weeks and months ahead. Stir in the Communist Party of China’s 20th National Congress in the same month. Geopolitics is not diminishing in intensity for some time to come.
