- USD/JPY update since the BOJ 'no change' policy announcement - roller coaster
- Yen crosses have surged after the BOJ announced policy held steady
- BOJ announce no change to monetary policy
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking Friday 17 June 2022
- Here is what to watch for a clue on any potential Bank of Japan policy change today.
- BOJ policy change is likely to be to YCC ... but not today
- Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) a huge beat in May
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.6923 (vs. estimate at 6.6933)
- US Energy Secretary Granholm is expected to meet refining executives to discuss gas prices
- Reports that crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital is facing $400 mn in liquidations
- Japan' top currency diplomat' has been reappointed
- AUD/USD unlikely to regain 0.74 in Q3 2022
- ANZ now forecast the RBNZ will hike 50bps in both July and August (previously 50 then 25)
- Cryptocurrency impact: Yellen says Congress must take action on digital asset regulation
- Preview - BOJ monetary policy is expected to remain on hold - decision today
- ICYMI: Italian PM Draghi said ECB rate rises will be more gradual than from the FOMC
- New Zealand Manufacturing PMI for May: 52.9 (prior 51.2)
- Russia gas flows weapon in war on Europe: Germany will run out of gas in winter by January
- More on China’s plan for iron ore price control (plans a buying cartel)
- Trade ideas thread - Friday, 17 June 2022
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar dumped in another risk rout
- Germany's Fin Min tells ECB President Lagarde fragmentation plan talk dents confidence
- Bank of Canada outlook - TD forecast a 75bp rate hike at the July meeting
- Major indices restart the downside momentum after the reprieve yesterday
- US President Biden says a recession is not inevitable
USD/JPY headed to (but didn’t quite get all the way) to 133.50 during the session here ahead of the Bank of Japan statement. The upmove came after the huge shunt lower following the Swiss National Bank shock 50bp rate hike on Thursday caused the CHF to soar. The SNB decision piqued thoughts that perhaps the BOJ would dial back its accommodative policy Friday. I posted previews (see bullets above) but in brief, expectations of any tightening of policy today were basically non-existent or at least very low indeed.
The SNB have provided a valuable lesson in never ruling anything out. I would note though that the SNB had wavered on loose policy in the weeks ahead of the decision (having said this, the vast majority of analysts were expecting an hold decision). The BOJ gave no such clues ahead of today’s meeting. And, the result was an ‘on hold’ decision from the BOJ. There is no change at all to their policy measures. The April ‘buy JGBs ever day’ policy was restated. This is not a Bank cutting back on loose policy any time soon.
As I said above, USD/JPY surged towards 133.50 prior to the statement from the Bank on policy. As soon as the no change decision was announced though USD/JPY rocketed higher. Yen crosses also, of course. USD/JPY traded to just over 134.50 and has swung, in a volatile wide range, since. Given the renewed, and widening, policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other DM central banks (ECB excepted, get a move on you lot!) I’m looking for USD/JPY to retest 135 in the days ahead. This time I do not expect 135 to hold.
News flow elsewher was very light and non-impactful. Ditto for data.
Otherwise across the majors the USD has been mixed. We’ve had a bit of a retracement for USD/CHF, while EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP have all slipped a little against the dollar.
BTC/USD revisited towards $21K. Oil is little changed net for the day.
USD/JPY roller coaster since the BOJ announcement (arrow), short term bars as a bit of an idea of the volatility ICYMI: