- USD remains gently bids in quiet, cautious market
- Watch out for disorderly bond moves to weaken stocks on a hot CPI print
- EURNZD: Head & shoulders reversal pattern
- NZDJPY: A bargain?
- Gold: Heading for a fourth weekly fall?
- UK October monthly GDP 0.1% vs 0.6% m/m expected
- Sonia futures price out a rate hike next week from the BoE
- Trading Tip: Understand market expectations
- Book review: A concise guide to macroeconomics
- Is the CBRT defending 14.00 on USDTRY?
- Gold: One market to watch over the CPI print
- AUD strongest currency of the week
- AUD strongest & NZD the weakest in mixed FX space as DXY hits session highs
- Hong Kong: Plans to tighten quarantine for US travellers
- Quick look at markets taking a pause after recent volatility drop
- Germany November final CPI 5.2% vs 5.2% y/y expected
- NZD: Looking cheap?
- Commodity currency comebacks
- FTSE +0.02%
- Euro Stoxx +0.33%
- Dax +0.30%
- Bitcoin +2.85%
- Gold -0.15%
- US oil +1.57%
The market started cautiously and quietly ahead of the hotly anticipated US CPI data. The main mover was largely USD driven. A US CPI beat is expected and there have to be concerns here that a strong move higher could create a disorderly bond market move that would weigh on stocks. So, watch out for that later depending on how hot the reading is. This is a good reminder that Omicron fears are just one narrative in the markets at the moment. The prospect of a Fed moving too far, too fast is the other narrative which can hit risk assets. So, if we get a very strong beat look for more upside in the Dollar and gold selling. A big miss in the CPI print and the AUDUSD should fly as well as gold being a good beneficiary.
US CPI print the driver
The anticipation of the US CPI print was the primary driver of quiet markets in the European session. A flat UK GDP print further weighed on a beleaguered pound and Sonia futures have now priced out the chance of December rate hike. If even Saunders were a tad more cautious last weekend then it would be a massive surprise if the BoE hiked next week.
Next week should be more interesting with a swathe of central banks meeting. Have a good weekend everyone