- UK October CPI +4.6% vs +4.8% y/y expected
- We must stay the course to continue to get inflation down to 2% - Sunak
- Eurozone September trade balance €10.0 billion vs €6.7 billion prior
- Germany October wholesale price index -0.7% vs +0.2% m/m prior
- France October final CPI +4.0% vs +4.0% y/y prelim
- Italy October final CPI +1.7% vs +1.8% y/y prelim
- US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 10 November +2.8% vs +2.5% prior
- Japan visitors in October exceed pre-Covid levels
- BofA Global Research no longer sees another Fed rate hike in December
- How have the Fed odds shifted after yesterday's CPI data?
- NZD leads, GBP lags on the day
- European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
- US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.471%
- Gold up 0.4% to $1,971.34
- WTI crude down 0.5% to $77.85
- Bitcoin up 1.% to $36,228
There was not much action on the session as traders are still digesting the outsized reaction to the US CPI data from yesterday. With more US economic data releases to come later today, markets are waiting with bated breath before proceeding.
The pound nudged lower after a softer-than-expected UK inflation report in October, though it owes much to base effects. GBP/USD dropped initially from 1.2485 to 1.2470 before keeping closer to 1.2460 now. The dollar steadied itself on the session as it holds a light advance against the pound and euro. EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.0855 with large option expiries pinning the pair in between 1.0850-75 on the session.
The antipodeans are the ones pushing slight gains though, helped out by more positive risk sentiment. European indices are posting modest gains with US futures also sitting higher ahead of the key data later today. AUD/USD is up 0.2% to 0.6518 while NZD/USD is up 0.4% to 0.6032 currently.
The bond market rally is stalling for now but it could just be a bit of a pit stop before we get to the US PPI and retail sales data. That could spark a further run lower in yields, after 10-years breaking below 4.50% yesterday. They are now up 3 bps to 4.47% but the mood is rather tentative at best I would say.
It's all about what the next set of data might say and if it might rebuff the market moves from yesterday. And as mentioned here, there's an inkling that it could end up being the case no matter what we end up getting.