bitcoin annotated fortune favors the brave

In hindsight, there's always an event or two that signifies that an asset has hit max popularity.

The 25% drop in bitcoin in the past week is worth a retrospective today, in what's shaping up to be a Black Monday for the space. Bitcoin is at the lows at the moment at $23,642.

Seven months ago it was flying high and that's when we got this cringey, high-budget ad from Matt Damon. It was everywhere for awhile.

Three weeks after that, the naming rights to Los Angeles' Staples Centre -- home to the Lakers, Kings and Clippers -- sold its naming rights to Crypto.com.

There's an old adage that it's time to sell a company's stock when it buys the naming rights to a stadium and that was certainly the case here. Bitcoin is down 62% since and the declines in the broader crypto space are worse.

What's next:

Good fortune in investing sometimes favors making big bets and picking bottoms but not often. Fortune more-often favors prudence, patience and measured moves. No one nails the bottom and rides it to the top. Warren Buffett has become the world's greatest investor by compounding at average rates of 20% for 55 years. Few hedge funds can even match that record for a decade.

Liquidity is drying up throughout markets right now and investors are looking for a safe haven. With even the safest bonds getting beaten up, that means cash.

Ultimately, there will be great deals -- including in crypto -- but the trade won't be to pick a time and go 'all in'. It will be to find some safety, get a clear head and start picking up the pieces when the time is right.

No one knows exactly when that will be but I'm certain it's not today.