The euro is already down six consecutive days against the dollar but a lot of that I would argue comes down to policy divergence as the Fed maintains a more hawkish undertone while ECB policymakers are more or less floundering.
The French election hasn't really captivated the attention of markets this time around but that doesn't mean that one should not be blind to the risks involved. The race between Macron and Le Pen is arguably less intense than what it was back in 2017 but we have seen the former's lead narrow in the past week or so and that is stirring up some nerves.
A Macron victory remains the most likely outcome but we are in territory where there is perhaps some margin for error as outlined here.
If anything else, even if Macron wins this Sunday, the margin of victory is something to watch. If we fall anywhere below 3 points, that's enough of a risk margin for markets to be nervous ahead of the second round of the election on 24 April. In turn, that could weigh further on the euro come the Monday open.
