• Prior +6.1%
  • CPI +0.3% vs +0.3% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.3%
  • HICP +4.3% vs +4.5% y/y expected
  • Prior +6.4%
  • HICP +0.2% vs +0.3% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.4%

The ECB can take some comfort from the headline reading as it falls back below the 5% mark, and that also goes for core annual inflation which fell from 5.5% in August to 4.6% in September. However, the devil is in the details.

As mentioned here in the preview, a lot of this has to do with base effects as compared with September last year when the government's measures to counter inflation wore off. That led to a 4.0% jump in services inflation last year compared to the year before. So, keep that in mind and the fact that there is still some ways off before returning to the pivotal 2% mark in the big picture - especially with monthly prices rising and oil prices moving up again in the last few months.