Comes via Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.

Says those three economies in the headline are at greater risk of seeing a "less shallow" recession.

Cites 3 factors:

  • "Currently, across the advanced economies, unit labor cost growth, core inflation, and the expected total increase in the policy rate are generally running at levels similar to the run-up of the typical advanced economy recession,"
  • "Higher measures of economic overheating in the U.S., U.K., and Canada than in Japan and the Euro area suggest that the next recession may be somewhat less shallow in these English-speaking G10 economies."

Hatzius' forecasts:

  • risk that "the economy enters a recession in the next year at 30% in the U.S., 40% in the Euro area, and 45% in the UK,"
Goldman Sachs sign