Via eFX

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  • "We still think the Yen offers attractive asymmetry due to rising US recession risks and the prospect for a change in monetary policy in Japan itself. In a US recession, we recently argued that end-2024 OIS rates would fall to 1-2%, or about 75-175bp below current levels," GS notes.
  • "We think investors should consider owning USD/JPY downside structures in options now, and look to go short USD/JPY in spot on clear weakness in the US labor market and/or signs of an imminent change in the Bois policy stance," GS adds.

GS have been treading this path for months now. Fighting the BOJ.

As for US labour market weakness, the next US NFP is due on July 8. GS watching that I guess.

Daily candles:

usdyen 30 June 2022 22