Via a Goldman Sachs note, analysts at the firm say that the US economy does not appear to be on the brink of a recession for the moment.
GS place a probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 35%. GS say this is :
- roughly triple the unconditional average for a typical year in recent decades
But that they are well below the market analyst consensus of 63%.
- One aspect of the consensus forecast that we are particularly skeptical of is the implicit view that rate hikes of the size we expect or just a bit larger will be enough to cause a recession.
SPX update after Globex reopen for the week's trade: