Via a Goldman Sachs note, analysts at the firm say that the US economy does not appear to be on the brink of a recession for the moment.

GS place a probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 35%. GS say this is :

  • roughly triple the unconditional average for a typical year in recent decades

But that they are well below the market analyst consensus of 63%.

GS add:

  • One aspect of the consensus forecast that we are particularly skeptical of is the implicit view that rate hikes of the size we expect or just a bit larger will be enough to cause a recession.


SPX update after Globex reopen for the week's trade:

spx 24 October 2022