This from ANZ yesterday that I'm doing a bit of a catch-up on. Analysts at the bank update their forecasts, in brief:

  • short-term (0-3 month) target for Brent crude to $75/bbl
  • sell-off in Brent will be relatively short-lived as fundamentals continue to signal a tighter market in Q2 2023
  • expects crude oil prices to push above $100/bbl in H2 of 2023
  • expects global oil demand to rise by 2.5 mb/d in 2023
  • expects China's oil consumption to increase by around 1.0 mb/d this year
  • maintains the view that Russian crude and condensate production will fall 500 kb/d in H1 2023 from pre-conflict levels


  • ANZ expect OPEC to keep the production cuts announced in late 2022 in place (if you missed this check it out here)
  • banking turmoil could further inhibit growth in US supply
  • lower oil prices may induce further demand, with the US to refill its strategic reserve
oil sag 17 March 2023