IHS Markit (S&P Global) says to watch the next round of PMIs as a heads up to recession risks and the persistence of elevated inflation rates.
Flash PMIs from Australia and Japan are imminent today:
Here is whats on the economic calendar in Asia Friday, 22 July 2022 - Japan June CPI data
IHS on what to watch in the PMIs for July:
- In summing up what to look out for with July's PMIs, and the flash numbers in particular, we bring attention to the demand environment in the developed world's four major economies, as indicated by the PMI's new orders index. When mapped against central bank policy decisions, as in chart 20, it is clear that policymakers are in unprecedented territory, tightening policy in a demand environment which has already turned gloomier to a degree that would already being flashing warning signs of recession. The trend in new orders in July will therefore be critical in assessing the extent to which these recession risks have changed.
This is the chart referred to:
