The US jobs report is coming up at the bottom of the hour. A few things to keep in mind as the data crosses:
- The consensus is +300K on jobs and +0.4% on average hourly earnings
- There's a strong historical pattern of weak August NFP readings
- Goldman Sachs: "Sweet spot for stocks tomorrow is a 0 – 100k headline reading...should get a 100+bp rally for S&P in this scenario after this recent drawdown. If we happen to get a negative number an even sharper rally."
- ING: "The market may not really need a big surprise to fully price in a 75bp hike in September, and a respectable jobs report may be enough to trigger another leg higher in the dollar today."
- The dollar is near major resistance on a handful of fronts. This could be the tiebreaker. Next week's US economic calendar is light and the CPI report is Sept 13
- Durable goods orders data for July is due out at 10 am ET. It's probably not a big market mover but it will be notable
- There are no scheduled Fed speakers today
- Monday is a holiday in the US, which could dampen liquidity in the latter half of the day
