A Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for France first round elections shows:
- Macron seen with 26.5%
- Le Pen with 23%
- Melenchon with 16.5%
For the runoff, the poll results show:
- Macron at 53% vs Le Pen.
The polling numbers have been narrowing from an over double digit gain a few weeks ago. Rising energy prices have helped to prop up Le Pen who is anti-EU.
The narrowing has led to a widening of the France rates to German rates. Looking at the 10 year spread, the yield spread has moved to 54 basis points from 40 basis points on March 30. The spread is the highest since April 2020.
France vs German 10 year yield spread
