In case you missed the timeline of events from earlier:

To summarise, the Nikkei carried a report just before the market open that BOJ deputy governor Amamiya has been sounded out to take over from Kuroda as head of the central bank after the latter's term expires on 8 April. If you're wondering why the yen fell, it is essentially because Amamiya is seen as being more dovish than the other potential candidates that were being touted.


He may be a copycat but he is definitely less dovish than his peer Wakatabe at least. But I think markets are just a little fearful that if we do see a promotion from within the central bank itself, there might not be much change in terms of policy outlook in the short-term.

That said, I'm sure the government will want to keep open that door - especially as inflation pressures continue to rise. That will make this year's spring wage negotiations as a crucial point which could mark a change in the times at the central bank, all before we see the next BOJ governor takes his/her seat.

USD/JPY opened with a gap higher earlier, just above 132.50 but has subsequently fallen back down towards 131.50-60 levels now:


The Friday jump after the hot US non-farm payrolls data was encouraging for buyers as it also took out the key trendline resistance (white line) and shakes off the recent lower highs, lower lows pattern in the pair.

That said, there are reasons for sellers to stick it out.

For one, Japan inflation data seems to be trending upwards and that will keep the pressure on the BOJ to act. That has already resulted in some government officials thinking that a shift in policy might be what is needed.

Secondly, whoever takes over as the next BOJ governor will have to play the game according to how the government wants to guide the overall policy outlook in Japan. It won't be a case of that person having the same kind of authority as Kuroda, with the need to being more flexible and potentially pivot away from ultra easing monetary policy being a vital attribute.

The third is pretty much from a technical standpoint with USD/JPY still being pressured despite a bit of a jump on Friday. The pair is still keeping well below 135.00 with daily resistance around 134.50 also in play. Add that to the notion that we have only seen a climb down from 150.00 to 130.00 after last year's monstrous rise, we are not really near any levels of yen longs being stretched. If anything, the positioning play is either still neutral or marginally tilted on either side - which allows for more flows to guide the momentum down the road.