A snippet from Morgan Stanley on the S&P 500 rally:

  • it's difficult to construct a case for more than a bear market rally, which could carry another 5%
  • inflation remains too high for the Fed's liking and so whatever pivot investors might be hoping for will be too immaterial to change the downtrend
  • that's not to say it can't get animal spirits moving higher in the short term
  • We see maximum upside near 4250-4300 in S&P 500 terms with Nasdaq and small caps likely to rally more on a percentage basis as is typical during such rallies
spx500 01 June 2022

Its been a sharp bounce for the index, but will it be a short one too is the question.