Via Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management unit, their outlook for US equities.
Analysts there argue that the recent equity gains are not the start of a long-term bull market; rather, they are just another bear market bounce. The present surge appears to be supported by loosening financial conditions rather than strengthening economic fundamentals. MS project these will turn around later this year.
MS outline incongruities:
1. Even as stocks trade higher, recent market action for other asset classes paints a starkly different picture. US government bonds: Treasury yield curves remain deeply inverted, a time-tested signal that an economic downturn is on the horizon.
2. Since the October low for the S&P 500, Gold continues to outperform both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
3. If equity investors are expecting a ‘soft landing’ and potential rebound in economic growth later in 2023, oil prices do not reflect that.
