Sentiment is driving this market.
Not all that much has changed in the last six weeks but we got a big rally in US equities from the lows followed by a four-day flush lower. If you back it out and look at the data, it's been a mixed bag. Powell was convincingly hawkish at Jackson Hole but it's all just talk for now and with gasoline prices down and other signs of falling prices, there will eventually be a pivot.
The best friend of sentiment is technical analysis. The S&P 500 stalled out right at the 200-day moving average. It fell through the 55-dma yesterday but it may have found support at the cluster of lows/highs around 3900.
How it finishes today will be telling. It's pared the loss to just 6 points at the moment, or 0.15%. Tomorrow is non-farm payrolls and that could change sentiment in a hurry.
