Earlier we heard that the US would be delivering its response to the 'final draft' of the JCPOA nuclear deal. Evidently that's taken place with Iran saying it has received the US response and 'started assessing' it.
I'd guess a deal is around 60% priced in and we'll see a $5 drop in oil if it's completed but that's a total guessing game. The latest drop could just be longs getting away from the risks. Or it could be that Iran hasn't snap-rejected it.
In any case, the chart above shows how tough it is to make short-term crude oil trades.
