ING with a pithy summary of oil supply woes, commenting in wake of the big plunge in price on Tuesday:

  • The oil market remains tight
  • and given the expectation that Russian oil supply will decline as we move through the year, the market is set to remain tight.

Therefore, we expect any further downside in the market to be fairly limited.

ING's outlook for European gas markets is more bleak:

  • European natural gas prices stood out amongst a sea of red in the commodities complex. TTF prices continued to edge higher, given the numerous supply risks facing the market. These include reduced Russian pipeline flows, tighter LNG supply, along with increased competition from Asia for these supplies, and obviously the strike action in Norway this week. Although parties involved have apparently agreed to end the strike as soon as possible.

Oil update:

oil chart 06 July 2022