Last week, the trend in oil was the non-stop bid, no matter the market conditions. That finally ebbed late in the week and today it's tracking the mood more closely, falling $1.83 to $83.21.
It had fallen as low as $81.90 but bounced.
One of the reasons for that is the differing demand/supply views. The demand side is undoubtedly damaged by omicron and faces worse from rate hikes or an economic slowdown.
However the big risk to the supply side is a Russia-Ukraine conflict and the possibility that 11 million Russian barrels per day could be locked in. I tend to think there was some stockpiling going on in the last two weeks but it's a tough balance. If bullets start flying, there's a tendency to dump risk and that includes oil.
In the long-term it's just as conclicted. Today, the CEOs of Occidental and ConocoPhillips attended a conference together with ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Ryan Lance saying US output will grow 800k bpd today this year and eventually surpass 13 mbpd.
Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said the US would likely surpass 12 mbpd at some point but fall short of 13 mbpd.
Much of that will depend on how much each of those companies (and many more) drill but Schlumberger today said its completion crews are all booked up, so it's not like there is any easy way to flip the switches.
