We're 24 hours from the FOMC decision and the flux in financial markets continues.
Oil is down $6.50 to $96.50 but that's $3 from the lows of the day. The rebound came on a broad turn in markets after Putin said that Ukraine is not serious in finding a mutually-acceptable solution to Russia's gripes. The thinking is that ceasefire negotiations that are ongoing right now won't go anywhere and that Russia will escalate the conflict.
That theme has also weighed on AUD/USD and helped gold roughly halve today's loss to $25. US stocks have given some ground back as well and cable is down to 1.3042 from a high of 1.3080.
The Fed decision is also keeping traders on their toes. The latest pricing shows an 87% chance of 25 bps and a 13% chance of 50 bps. The larger question is what happens in May, where a 50 bps hike is roughly 50/50 at the moment. If Powell signals a faster pace of hikes, it could upend the global risk trade and send the dollar surging.
