Philadelphia Fed
Philadelphia Fed current and future activity index
  • Philadelphia Fed business index versus -10.0 estimate. Last month -19.4
  • employment -1.8 versus 7.1 last month
  • prices paid 26.4 versus 35.3 last month
  • Prices received 24.3 versus vs 34.6 last month
  • new orders -25.8 versus -16.2 last month
  • shipments -6.2 versus 7.0 last month
  • unfilled orders -14.7 versus -22.9 last month
  • delivery times -11.9 versus -8.8 last month
  • inventories -2.7 versus -6.5 last month
  • average employee work week -8.9 versus 1.4 last month

six-month forward measures

  • business activity 3.8 versus -7.1 last month
  • capital expenditures 18.0 versus 6.4 last month
  • new orders 13.6 versus -4.8 last month
  • employment 18.4 versus 11.1 last month
  • shipments 22.5 versus 10.2 last month
  • prices paid 39.22 versus 18.5 last month
  • prices received 32.7 verse 15.7 last month
  • average work week -0.7 versus -12.1 last month

Inflation readings are lower currently, but six-month forward price expectations moved higher. Growth is slower with new orders falling to -25.8 and shipments also going negative at -6.2.

From the Philadelphia Fed:

  • The survey’s broad indicators for current activity were all negative. The firms on balance also reported a decline in employment. The future indicators improved,suggesting that the firms expect overall growth over the next six months.
  • The index is activity index of -13.8 was the fourth consecutive negative reading in sixth negative reading in the past seven months
  • the employment index dipped into negative territory for the first time since June 2020 with 19% of firms reporting declines in employment and 17% reporting increases. 64% reported steady employment
  • the prices paid index fell to the lowest reading since September 2020 and is near its long-run average
  • the six-month forward business activity returned to positive territory which is its first since May

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