The February non-farm payrolls report will be released on Friday at 8:30 am ET (1330 GMT) and it's a big one. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell specifically cited non-farm payrolls along with CPI and PPI as upcoming data points that will determine whether they hike rates by 25 bps or 50 bps. Currently, the market is pricing in a 64% chance of 50 bps but there will be a big swing based on the results of the jobs report.
- Consensus estimate +205K (range +78K to +325K)
- Private +210K
- January +517K
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.4% vs 3.4% prior
- Participation rate prior 62.4%
- Prior underemployment U6 6.6%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.7% y/y vs +4.4% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.6 vs 34.7 prior
Here's the February jobs picture so far:
- ADP employment +242K vs 200K expected
- ISM manufacturing employment 49.1vs 50.6 prior
- ISM services employment 54.0 vs 49.8 prior -- highest since Dec 2021
- Challenger Job Cuts rose 410% y/y
- Philly employment +5.1 vs +10.9 prior
- Empire employment -6.6 vs +2.8 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 192K vs 200K exp
Seasonally, the headline payrolls print is seasonally strong in February coming in above estimates 73% of the time and missing 27% of the time by 70k and 121k, respectively, on average.
In terms of the unemployment rate, 27% of previous reads in February have been higher than expected, 42% have been better-than-estimates, and 31% have matched forecasts, according to BMO.
