Preview: November non-farm payrolls by the numbers

• Consensus estimate +200K
• Private +190K
• October +233K
• Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.7% vs 3.7% prior
• Participation rate prior 62.2%
• Prior underemployment U6 6.8%
• Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.6% y/y vs +4.7% prior
• Avg hourly earnings Earnings A company’s earnings represent its profits or net benefits as a result of its operation.Earnings are the net benefits of a corporation's operation. Earnings can be calculated as EBIT, i.e. earnings before interest and taxes, and EBITDA, i.e. earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.Earnings are valuable tools for investors of company shares as they can often highlight a company’s financial standing and performance. Better performances can result in strengthened share price A company’s earnings represent its profits or net benefits as a result of its operation.Earnings are the net benefits of a corporation's operation. Earnings can be calculated as EBIT, i.e. earnings before interest and taxes, and EBITDA, i.e. earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.Earnings are valuable tools for investors of company shares as they can often highlight a company’s financial standing and performance. Better performances can result in strengthened share price Read this Term m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.4% prior
• Avg weekly hours exp 34.5 vs 34.5 prior

Here's the November jobs picture so far:

• ADP employment 127K vs 200K expected
• ISM manufacturing employment 48.4 vs 50.0 prior
• Challenger Job Cuts rose 416.5% y/y
• Philly employment 7.1 vs 28.5 prior
• Empire employment 12.2 vs 7.7 prior
• Initial jobless claims Jobless Claims Jobless claims are a weekly statistic reported in the United States that represents a key barometer for domestic employment. As one of the most closely watched US indicators, jobless claims carry a lot of weight in financial markets, namely forex and the stock market.Jobless claims are reported on a weekly basis by the Department of Labor. While painting a picture of the overall health of the economy, jobless claims can be broken down into two types.This includes initial jobless claims or person Jobless claims are a weekly statistic reported in the United States that represents a key barometer for domestic employment. As one of the most closely watched US indicators, jobless claims carry a lot of weight in financial markets, namely forex and the stock market.Jobless claims are reported on a weekly basis by the Department of Labor. While painting a picture of the overall health of the economy, jobless claims can be broken down into two types.This includes initial jobless claims or person Read this Term survey week 223K vs 228K exp
• ISM services employment not yet released

USD/JPY has been taking an absolute throttling over the past three days, including a 120 pip drop today. That's surely chased out many on the crowded long side of the trade. The bond rally has also been a curious one in the past 24 hours. That all leaves the market vulnerable to two-sided risks.