With oil at $87 and the midterms coming, the US has ample reason to agree to compromise on an Iran nuclear deal.

We heard murmurs earlier this week about progress on talks, with Iran's foreign minister opening the door to direct talks with the US. Now Russia's envoy says he sees a deal reached by the end of February that will end the embargo. He added that a new deal could start by April.

If I were an oil producer and looking at the futures curve above $80 until November, I would be awfully tempted to hedge.