Tesla share price premarket
Tesla share price premarket
  • Deliveries 387,000 vs 433,000 estimate (some consensus estimates as high as 457k)
  • 422,875 cars delivered last year in Q1
  • Production 433,371

That's a big miss and it comes after some major downward revisions to estimates in the past week or so. In fact, stretching back to early Jan, the consensus was just below 500k. It means that Tesla sales were down y/y in Q1.

Earlier today, Tesla revealed that China deliveries were up just 0.2% y/y as it faces strong competition from BYD and other local manufacturers.

“Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin,” Tesla said.

However it wasn't production that undershot, it was deliveries.

Zooming out, Tesla is now trading at $162, which is just above the March low of $160. If that breaks, the next stop is $150 and that will be a critical level to hold. I expect a wave of downgrades today and tomorrow.

Given these sales numbers and pricing, we could be in a situation where Tesla loses money this year.

The drop in Tesla shares is weighing on the Nasdaq with futures down 1.0%.