You would think there would be bidders for 10-year yields at 3.85% or 2s at 4.28% but here we are. It's entirely possible that a decade of QE has cleared out bond buyers.
This market can't turn until yields stabilize. It's a combined inflation panic, growth panic and government finances panic. That's not a storm to fade.
But a dip in bond yields will only be the first step because now it's going to come on recession fears rather than the Fed getting inflation under control. Obviously the bond market is going to lead the Fed so we'll eventually see yields fall and then a Fed pivot sometime after, which would be the second step.
In the meantime, there's a real risk of something breaking, if that's not the gilt market already.
S&P 500:
