This is what happens to oil production when you become a pariah on the global stage and lose access to capital:
It's premature, but Russia may be headed down the same path. Russia is currently the world's largest oil exporter and one of the top-3 producers overall.
Yesterday, BP announced it was unloading its 20% stake in Russian oil giant Rosnet and now Shell says it will exit Russia.
These stakes will be sold to someone for cents on the dollar but Russia better hope it's to someone with deep pockets. Russian oil and gas has likely suffered from the same under-investment as the rest of the world for the past five years (and particularly in the pandemic). That's a recipe for falling production. Piling on sanctions will add to the difficulty.
For now, Russia can still sell to China, India and Turkey -- all huge importers -- so it's not entirely bleak, but between this and ESG headwinds, the risk of a long-term extreme overshoot in oil prices is growing.
